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Listen, Elon Musk just told a room full of Saudi investors that in 10-20 years, work will be optional and money won't exist. His plan? Tesla's Optimus robots will build more Optimus robots in self-replicating factories—what he calls "the Von Neumann probe"—until we're drowning in robot labor and material abundance.

Here's the kicker: he's got a 16% track record on predictions.

What's Actually Happening

Tesla isn't just theorizing. They've got concrete milestones: thousands of Optimus units deploying in 2025, ramping to 1 million per year by mid-2026, and a 10-million-unit facility breaking ground at Giga Texas for 2027. That's a 100x scale-up in 18 months. For context, they're targeting a $20,000 manufacturing cost when current humanoid robots run $150,000 to $500,000.

The competition sees it too. Figure AI (backed by Microsoft and OpenAI) is deploying in BMW factories. China's declared 2025 the "year of mass production" for humanoids. This isn't vaporware—it's happening.

The Reality Check

But self-replicating factories? That requires robots that can fabricate semiconductors, mine and refine raw materials, and machine precision components. Experts say this is "completely unreasonable with modern technology." Chip fabs alone cost $10-20 billion and occupy half a million square feet.

Then there's the Yale Budget Lab finding that might matter most: after 33 months of rapid AI advancement since ChatGPT, labor market disruption is—wait for it—zero. The occupational mix of U.S. employment remains "strikingly stable." If AI hasn't moved the needle in three years, why would humanoid robots (which are 5-10 years behind AI in deployment) trigger work becoming optional by 2035?

Why This Matters

The gap between vision and forecast matters because real money and policy decisions flow from these predictions. Musk's framing has already redirected billions in investment capital toward humanoid robotics. Saudi Arabia's exploring trillion-dollar commitments. That's not nothing.

But the energy infrastructure alone—powering billions of robots manufacturing 24/7—would require electricity generation we haven't planned, funded, or politically committed to building. Scientists estimate AI could hit 326 terawatt-hours annually by 2028. Add robot manufacturing on top and you're looking at grid expansion that makes current data center concerns look quaint.

The thing is, Musk's greatest skill isn't accurate forecasting—it's ambitious framing. By articulating post-scarcity as the endpoint, he's accelerating progress that would otherwise crawl. Whether we reach his stated destination? That's the defining question of the 2030s.