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Listen, I need to tell you about the most absurd arms race happening right now, and it's not about chips or cloud deals—it's about people. Specifically, the people who know how to build AI systems. And companies are losing their minds trying to hoard them.

Here's what went down last week: Intel's Chief Technology Officer, Sachin Katti—the guy leading their entire AI strategy—just bounced to OpenAI. Intel's CEO had to personally take over AI efforts because they literally couldn't find a replacement fast enough. Meta is reportedly offering $100 million signing bonuses to recruit top AI researchers. One hundred million dollars. For a single person.

Meanwhile, Microsoft announced a new "MAI Superintelligence Team" led by Mustafa Suleyman (DeepMind co-founder, now Microsoft's AI chief) to build AI systems that are "vastly more capable than humans" in specific domains. Their first target? Medical diagnostics, with Suleyman predicting a "medical superintelligence" could arrive in 2-3 years. Microsoft says they'll invest "a lot of money," which in today's AI market translates to "we have no freaking idea but it's a big number."

The kicker? This is happening while SoftBank's CEO Masayoshi Son—who famously rode the dot-com bubble to riches and then losses—is going "all in" on AI. SoftBank agreed to lead a $40 billion funding round into OpenAI in April, valuing it at $300 billion. Then in October, they bought another $6.6 billion of OpenAI shares at a $500 billion valuation. SoftBank's stock has quadrupled since April on pure AI euphoria, which should either make you excited or terrified depending on your memory of Son's track record with the $100 billion Vision Fund.

Even China's getting existential. DeepSeek—the secretive Chinese AI startup that shocked everyone by releasing a low-cost model that rivaled OpenAI—made a rare public appearance. Their senior researcher warned that AI could start displacing jobs within 5-10 years and "take over the rest of work humans perform" in 10-20 years. This from a company Beijing parades as proof of Chinese AI prowess.

Here's what's really happening: We're watching the formation of a talent cartel. The companies that can pay $100 million bonuses get the engineers. Those engineers build better models. Better models attract more funding. More funding enables even bigger bonuses. It's a self-reinforcing loop that's concentrating AI development in maybe a dozen organizations worldwide.

The bubble question isn't about whether AI is real—it clearly is. It's about whether these valuations and compensation packages make any economic sense. When SoftBank bets $40 billion on OpenAI at a valuation that assumes it becomes more valuable than most Fortune 500 companies, we're either witnessing the birth of something unprecedented or the biggest case of FOMO investing since 1999.

Buckle up. The talent war is just getting started, and it's going to get stupider before it gets smarter.